← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Aug 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Probert, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 37% | 32% | 2.68 | fair |
| Everton win | 36% | 41% | 2.75 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.51 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟥 | Richarlison · Everton |
| 55' | 🟨 | Gylfi Sigurðsson · Everton |
| 56' | ⚽ | Theo Walcott · Everton |
| 61' | 🟥 | Adam Smith · Bournemouth |
| 66' | ⚽ | Michael Keane · Everton |
| 70' | 🟨 | Cenk Tosun · Everton |
| 75' | ⚽ (pen) | Joshua King · Bournemouth |
| 79' | ⚽ | Nathan Aké · Bournemouth |
| 81' | 🟨 | Idrissa Gana Gueye · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.54 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 2154.00 | 116.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.85 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1754.36 | 1765.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.48 | 0.69 |
| eye test v1 | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 51.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.68 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.15 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.11 | 26.63 |
| state index | 1.15 | 0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 310.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |