← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, Aug 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Friend, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 57% | 62% | 1.71 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.70 | fair |
| Brighton win | 17% | 16% | 5.90 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Glenn Murray · Brighton |
| 27' | ⚽ | Shane Duffy · Brighton |
| 34' | ⚽ | Romelu Lukaku · Man United |
| 44' | ⚽ (pen) | Pascal Groß · Brighton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Anthony Martial · Man United |
| 67' | 🟨 | Glenn Murray · Brighton |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Paul Pogba · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | American Express Community Stadium |
| coach days | 1357.00 | 840.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1695.12 | 1978.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.76 | -9.89 |
| eye test v1 | -1.26 | 0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 65.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.73 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.80 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.40 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.04 | 1.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.53 | 25.72 |
| state index | -0.02 | 1.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | 0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 326.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |