β Premier League 2018-19 Β· Sat, Aug 18, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 77% | 85% | 1.27 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 15% | 10% | 6.50 | fair |
| Fulham win | 8% | 4% | 11.96 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | β½ | Lucas Moura Β· Tottenham |
| 52' | β½ | Aleksandar MitroviΔ Β· Fulham |
| 74' | β½ | Kieran Trippier Β· Tottenham |
| 77' | β½ | Harry Kane Β· Tottenham |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 10 |
| 11 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 5 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | β |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | β |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | β |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | β |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Wembley Stadium |
| coach days | 1509.00 | 1021.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1813.60 | 1409.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.05 | -25.64 |
| eye test v1 | 0.57 | β |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | β |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.20 | β |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.76 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | β |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.20 | β |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.67 | β |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | β |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | β |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | β |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | β |
| squad age | 26.46 | 26.06 |
| state index | 1.12 | -0.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.26 | β |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | β |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | β |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | β |
| travel km | β | 17.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |