← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Aug 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Mason, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 53% | 39% | 1.84 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 40% | 3.63 | value: +46% |
| Southampton win | 20% | 20% | 4.92 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Theo Walcott · Everton |
| 17' | 🟨 | Wesley Hoedt · Southampton |
| 19' | 🟨 | Mario Lemina · Southampton |
| 31' | ⚽ | Richarlison · Everton |
| 36' | 🟨 | Oriol Romeu · Southampton |
| 44' | 🟨 | Cédric Soares · Southampton |
| 54' | ⚽ | Danny Ings · Southampton |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jack Stephens · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 20 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Goodison Park |
| coach days | 109.00 | 170.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1578.39 | 1513.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.57 | 22.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.25 | -1.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.81 | 26.34 |
| state index | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.21 | -1.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 301.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |