← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Aug 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Craig Pawson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves win | 40% | 39% | 2.44 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.23 | fair |
| Everton win | 30% | 34% | 3.32 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Richarlison · Everton |
| 17' | ⚽ | Richarlison · Everton |
| 40' | 🟥 | Phil Jagielka · Everton |
| 44' | ⚽ | Rúben Neves · Wolves |
| 67' | ⚽ | Richarlison · Everton |
| 80' | ⚽ | Raúl Jiménez · Wolves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | — | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | — | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | — | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| coach days | 467.00 | 102.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.12 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1380.78 | 1582.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.75 | 0.22 |
| eye test v1 | — | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | — | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | — | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.74 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | — | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | — | 50.20 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | — | -0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | — | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | — | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | — | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 27.99 |
| state index | -1.11 | 0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | — | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | — | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | — | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 109.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |