← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Aug 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 38% | 32% | 2.58 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 40% | 3.08 | value: +23% |
| Brighton win | 30% | 28% | 3.22 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Dale Stephens · Brighton |
| 35' | ⚽ | Roberto Pereyra · Watford |
| 54' | ⚽ | Roberto Pereyra · Watford |
| 64' | 🟨 | Étienne Capoue · Watford |
| 73' | 🟨 | José Holebas · Watford |
| 81' | 🟨 | Bernardo · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 0 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days |
| 222.00 |
| 1349.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.48 | 1.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1485.31 | 1511.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.62 | 19.02 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | -0.89 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 68.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.70 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 35.40 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -9.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.50 | -1.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 28.06 | 27.34 |
| state index | -0.07 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.17 | -0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 90.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |