← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Aug 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 52% | 53% | 1.89 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 21% | 3.53 | fair |
| Newcastle win | 21% | 26% | 4.74 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Jan Vertonghen · Tottenham |
| 11' | ⚽ | Joselu · Newcastle |
| 18' | ⚽ | Dele Alli · Tottenham |
| 42' | 🟨 | Eric Dier · Tottenham |
| 58' | 🟨 | Joselu · Newcastle |
| 68' | 🟨 | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mohamed Diamé · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | St James' Park |
| coach days | 893.00 | 1502.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1540.31 | 1808.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.66 | -15.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.63 | 0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 66.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.73 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 65.20 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.29 | 1.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.65 | 26.46 |
| state index | 0.34 | 1.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | 1.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 388.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |