← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Aug 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham win | 37% | 40% | 2.62 | value: +5% |
| Crystal Palace win | 34% | 33% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Kevin McDonald · Fulham |
| 40' | 🟨 | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
| 41' | ⚽ | Jeffrey Schlupp · Crystal Palace |
| 74' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Schlupp · Crystal Palace |
| 79' | ⚽ | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 9 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | — | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | — | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | — | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| coach days | 1014.00 | 344.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.94 | 1.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1420.59 | 1567.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.10 | 47.54 |
| eye test v1 | — | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | — | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | — | 64.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.70 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | — | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | — | 53.20 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | — | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | — | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | — | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | — | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 27.35 |
| state index | -0.49 | 0.96 |
| sterile dominance v1 | — | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | — | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | — | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 12.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |