← Premier League 2017-18 · Sun, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Graham Scott, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham win | 42% | 65% | 2.35 | value: +52% ⚠ |
| Everton win | 30% | 18% | 3.28 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 17% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Ramiro Funes Mori · Everton |
| 39' | ⚽ | Manuel Lanzini · West Ham |
| 63' | ⚽ | Marko Arnautovic · West Ham |
| 74' | ⚽ | Oumar Niasse · Everton |
| 82' | ⚽ | Manuel Lanzini · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1718.70 | 1772.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.85 | 21.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | -0.94 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.79 |
| league points | 39.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.67 | -0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.92 | 27.47 |
| state index | 0.21 | 0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.62 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| travel km | — | 292.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |