← Premier League 2017-18 · Sun, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Craig Pawson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 70% | 78% | 1.38 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 18% | 13% | 5.50 | fair |
| Leicester win | 12% | 8% | 8.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
| 7' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 16' | ⚽ | Riyad Mahrez · Leicester |
| 47' | ⚽ | Kelechi Iheanacho · Leicester |
| 49' | ⚽ | Érik Lamela · Tottenham |
| 53' | ⚽ (og) | Christian Fuchs · Tottenham |
| 55' | 🟨 | Victor Wanyama · Tottenham |
| 60' | ⚽ | Érik Lamela · Tottenham |
| 73' | ⚽ | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
| 76' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 83' | 🟨 | Hamza Choudhury · Leicester |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adrien Silva · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 16 |
| 6 | On target | 9 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Wembley Stadium |
| coach days | 1412.00 | 224.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.01 | 4.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1805.92 | 1568.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.99 | -33.93 |
| eye test v1 | 0.39 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.60 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.59 |
| league points | 74.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.00 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.55 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.52 | 28.04 |
| state index | 0.73 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.23 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 134.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |