← Premier League 2017-18 · Sun, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 47% | 63% | 2.08 | value: +30% ⚠ |
| Draw | 27% | 19% | 3.56 | fair |
| Stoke win | 26% | 18% | 3.82 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Andy King · Swansea |
| 31' | ⚽ | Badou Ndiaye · Stoke |
| 36' | 🟨 | Mike Van der Hoorn · Swansea |
| 41' | ⚽ | Peter Crouch · Stoke |
| 56' | 🟨 | Peter Crouch · Stoke |
| 66' | 🟨 | Moritz Bauer · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 26 | Shots | 8 |
| 11 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 0 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.20 |
| venue | Liberty Stadium |
| coach days | 163.00 | 12.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1491.65 | 1473.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.06 | -0.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | -0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.77 |
| league points | 33.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 61.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 36.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 0.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | -2.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.87 | 28.41 |
| state index | -0.89 | -0.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | -1.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 191.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |