← Premier League 2017-18 · Sun, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 64% | 77% | 1.51 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 20% | 12% | 4.78 | fair |
| Southampton win | 15% | 11% | 6.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 71' | 🟨 | James Ward-Prowse · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cédric Soares · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Éderson · Man City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gabriel Jesus · Man City |
| 90' | ⚽ | Gabriel Jesus · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 12 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days |
| 73.00 |
| 681.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.47 | 3.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.77 |
| elo | 1515.67 | 1899.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.81 | 16.44 |
| eye test v1 | 0.42 | 1.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 70.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.75 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.41 |
| league points | 36.00 | 97.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 89.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 72.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 2.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 12.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 17.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.86 | 2.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 26.26 | 27.41 |
| state index | 0.12 | 1.94 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | 1.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 291.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |