← Premier League 2017-18 · Sun, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Friend, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 79% | 84% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 13% | 7.12 | fair |
| Brighton win | 7% | 3% | 14.03 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 40' | ⚽ | Dejan Lovren · Liverpool |
| 53' | ⚽ | Dominic Solanke · Liverpool |
| 85' | ⚽ | Andy Robertson · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 2 |
| 11 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 3 | Fouls | 6 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days | 416.00 | 1259.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.50 | 1.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1768.90 | 1516.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.67 | 16.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | -0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.42 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.40 | 70.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.72 |
| league points | 72.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.00 | 39.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.95 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.82 | -1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.30 | 28.37 |
| state index | 0.85 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.40 | -0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 346.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |