← Premier League 2017-18 · Sun, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 54% | 59% | 1.79 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.85 | fair |
| West Brom win | 20% | 17% | 4.82 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Chris Brunt · West Brom |
| 48' | 🟨 | James Tomkins · Crystal Palace |
| 55' | 🟨 | Craig Dawson · West Brom |
| 68' | 🟨 | James McArthur · Crystal Palace |
| 70' | ⚽ | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
| 78' | ⚽ | Patrick van Aanholt · Crystal Palace |
| 81' | 🟨 | Kieran Gibbs · West Brom |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days | 254.00 | 42.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1557.60 | 1483.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.56 | 57.37 |
| eye test v1 | 0.30 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 70.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.47 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.66 |
| league points | 41.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 36.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 0.84 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.18 | -1.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.96 | 29.49 |
| state index | 0.63 | 0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | -1.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 178.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |