← Premier League 2017-18 · Sun, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paul Tierney, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 41% | 55% | 2.35 | value: +30% |
| Bournemouth win | 31% | 19% | 3.16 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.52 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | ⚽ | Chris Wood · Burnley |
| 74' | ⚽ | Joshua King · Bournemouth |
| 90' | ⚽ | Callum Wilson · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 2050.00 | 2050.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.97 | 3.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1563.69 | 1529.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.03 | -16.04 |
| eye test v1 | -0.61 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| league points | 54.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.17 | 0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.14 | 26.50 |
| state index | -0.34 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.38 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 340.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |