← Premier League 2017-18 · Wed, May 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paul Tierney, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 81% | 87% | 1.20 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 13% | 7% | 7.60 | fair |
| Brighton win | 6% | 6% | 15.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Danilo · Man City |
| 20' | ⚽ | Leonardo Ulloa · Brighton |
| 34' | ⚽ | Bernardo Silva · Man City |
| 37' | 🟨 | Shane Duffy · Brighton |
| 72' | ⚽ | Fernandinho · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 5 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 677.00 | 1255.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.97 | 1.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.43 |
| elo | 2085.95 | 1716.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.34 | 14.18 |
| eye test v1 | 1.38 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.00 | 70.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.75 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.73 |
| league points | 94.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.60 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.61 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 12.80 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 2.65 | -1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.61 | 28.72 |
| state index | 1.99 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.53 | -0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 325.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |