← Premier League 2017-18 · Wed, May 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Graham Scott, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 50% | 49% | 1.97 | fair |
| Leicester win | 25% | 33% | 3.89 | value: +27% |
| Draw | 25% | 19% | 3.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Kelechi Iheanacho · Leicester |
| 15' | 🟥 | Konstantinos Mavropanos · Arsenal |
| 53' | ⚽ | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Arsenal |
| 75' | 🟨 | Rob Holding · Arsenal |
| 76' | ⚽ (pen) | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
| 77' | 🟨 | Granit Xhaka · Arsenal |
| 78' | 🟨 | Danny Simpson · Leicester |
| 85' | 🟨 | Riyad Mahrez · Leicester |
| 90' | ⚽ | Riyad Mahrez · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 14 |
| 10 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| coach days | 220.00 | 8.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.43 | 3.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1548.48 | 1722.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -67.91 | 5.04 |
| eye test v1 | -0.81 | 0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.90 | 52.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.46 | 0.67 |
| league points | 44.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 61.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.68 | 1.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 28.43 | 26.01 |
| state index | -0.97 | 0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.91 | 1.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 137.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |