← Premier League 2017-18 · Tue, May 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 40% | 34% | 2.45 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 41% | 3.19 | value: +32% |
| Swansea win | 29% | 25% | 3.34 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Sung-Yueng Ki · Swansea |
| 38' | 🟨 | Oriol Romeu · Southampton |
| 72' | ⚽ | Manolo Gabbiadini · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Federico Fernández · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.40 |
| venue | Liberty Stadium |
| coach days | 158.00 | 68.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 3.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1503.34 | 1503.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.37 | 10.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.71 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.62 |
| league points | 33.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.33 | -0.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.50 | 26.43 |
| state index | -0.64 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.16 | -0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 195.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |