← Premier League 2017-18 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 90% | 80% | 1.08 | fair |
| Draw | 7% | 9% | 14.40 | value: +35% |
| Huddersfield win | 4% | 11% | 26.00 | value: +189% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 66' | 🟨 | Tommy Smith · Huddersfield |
| 76' | 🟨 | Chris Löwe · Huddersfield |
| 87' | 🟨 | Rajiv Van La Parra · Huddersfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 5 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 4 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Huddersfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days |
| 674.00 |
| 917.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.41 | 3.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1906.26 | 1460.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.01 | -24.59 |
| eye test v1 | 1.58 | -1.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 70.70 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.75 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.69 |
| league points | 93.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.60 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 2.66 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 13.20 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.60 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.80 | -0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 26.39 | 26.41 |
| state index | 1.82 | -0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.56 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| travel km | — | 34.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |