← Premier League 2017-18 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 44% | 41% | 2.24 | fair |
| Liverpool win | 29% | 40% | 3.37 | value: +34% |
| Draw | 27% | 19% | 3.61 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ | Olivier Giroud · Chelsea |
| 39' | 🟨 | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 40' | 🟨 | Nathaniel Clyne · Liverpool |
| 79' | 🟨 | Marcos Alonso · Chelsea |
| 81' | 🟨 | Victor Moses · Chelsea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Thibaut Courtois · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days | 674.00 | 409.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.69 | 3.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1752.23 | 1777.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.55 | -8.96 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.00 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.76 |
| league points | 66.00 | 72.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 64.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.04 | 1.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.53 | 26.17 |
| state index | 0.79 | 0.96 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | 1.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 286.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |