← Premier League 2017-18 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 66% | 57% | 1.47 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 31% | 4.79 | value: +48% |
| Burnley win | 13% | 12% | 7.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Arsenal |
| 44' | 🟨 | James Tarkowski · Burnley |
| 45' | ⚽ | Alexandre Lacazette · Arsenal |
| 54' | ⚽ | Sead Kolašinac · Arsenal |
| 64' | ⚽ | Alex Iwobi · Arsenal |
| 75' | ⚽ | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days | 5.00 | 2043.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | 3.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1713.07 | 1573.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.33 | 6.38 |
| eye test v1 | 1.05 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.10 | 65.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.78 |
| league points | 57.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 65.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.60 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.74 | -1.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 24.46 | 28.17 |
| state index | 0.44 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.01 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 286.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |