← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Chris Kavanagh, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 44% | 55% | 2.21 | value: +21% |
| West Ham win | 28% | 23% | 3.48 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 22% | 3.56 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | ⚽ | João Mário · West Ham |
| 41' | 🟨 | Marko Arnautovic · West Ham |
| 49' | 🟨 | Aaron Cresswell · West Ham |
| 64' | 🟨 | Aleksandar Dragović · Leicester |
| 64' | ⚽ | Mark Noble · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| coach days | 216.00 | 4.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1568.63 | 1504.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.86 | 8.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.63 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.10 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.50 | 0.64 |
| league points | 44.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.62 | -0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.36 | 28.51 |
| state index | -0.54 | -0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.08 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 144.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |