← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 36% | 29% | 2.71 | fair |
| Everton win | 35% | 42% | 2.84 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.34 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Charlie Austin · Southampton |
| 53' | 🟨 | Oriol Romeu · Southampton |
| 56' | ⚽ | Nathan Redmond · Southampton |
| 71' | 🟨 | Maya Yoshida · Southampton |
| 77' | 🟨 | Morgan Schneiderlin · Everton |
| 85' | 🟨 | Maya Yoshida · Southampton |
| 85' | 🟥 | Maya Yoshida · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tom Davies · Everton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Shane Long · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Wesley Hoedt · Southampton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Tom Davies · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Goodison Park |
| coach days |
| 4.00 |
| 65.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.85 | 3.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1601.93 | 1499.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.24 | -9.42 |
| eye test v1 | -1.02 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.60 |
| league points | 48.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.14 | -0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 28.34 | 26.76 |
| state index | 0.39 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | -0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 301.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |