← Premier League 2017-18 · Fri, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Craig Pawson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 53% | 61% | 1.86 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 29% | 17% | 3.43 | fair |
| Brighton win | 19% | 23% | 5.20 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 47' | 🟨 | Glenn Murray · Brighton |
| 57' | ⚽ | Pascal Groß · Brighton |
| 67' | 🟨 | Pascal Groß · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 5 | Fouls | 3 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | American Express Community Stadium |
| coach days | 1250.00 | 733.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 2.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1502.83 | 1818.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.19 | 11.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.90 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| league points | 37.00 | 77.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 2.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.88 | 1.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.79 | 27.83 |
| state index | -0.44 | 1.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.62 | 1.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 326.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |