← Premier League 2017-18 · Mon, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 83% | 84% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 9% | 8.70 | fair |
| Watford win | 6% | 7% | 17.50 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Dele Alli · Tottenham |
| 48' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 64' | 🟨 | Victor Wanyama · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 0 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Wembley Stadium |
| coach days |
| 1399.00 |
| 119.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1817.65 | 1480.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.60 | -24.67 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.00 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.61 |
| league points | 68.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.25 | -0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.31 | 28.73 |
| state index | 1.03 | -0.88 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.00 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 23.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |