← Premier League 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Neil Swarbrick, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 73% | 75% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 14% | 5.70 | fair |
| West Ham win | 10% | 11% | 10.00 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Leroy Sané · Man City |
| 27' | ⚽ (og) | Pablo Zabaleta · Man City |
| 37' | 🟨 | Nicolás Otamendi · Man City |
| 42' | ⚽ | Aaron Cresswell · West Ham |
| 53' | ⚽ | Gabriel Jesus · Man City |
| 64' | ⚽ | Fernandinho · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 4 | Shots | 19 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 0 | Corners | 7 |
| 5 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days |
| 179.00 |
| 667.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 3.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.78 |
| elo | 1508.89 | 1901.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.68 | 14.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | 1.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 68.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.70 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.68 |
| league points | 35.00 | 90.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 89.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 71.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 2.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 13.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 18.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | 2.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 27.69 | 26.44 |
| state index | -0.30 | 1.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | 1.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 263.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |