← Premier League 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Friend, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 69% | 61% | 1.41 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 25% | 5.30 | value: +34% |
| Arsenal win | 12% | 13% | 7.90 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Paul Pogba · Man United |
| 24' | 🟨 | Granit Xhaka · Arsenal |
| 51' | ⚽ | Henrikh Mkhitaryan · Arsenal |
| 90' | ⚽ | Marouane Fellaini · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 0 |
| 12 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days |
| 728.00 |
| 7881.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1812.93 | 1724.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.97 | -7.81 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | 1.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.90 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.73 |
| league points | 74.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 66.20 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 2.18 | 1.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.71 | 2.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 25.99 | 25.93 |
| state index | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.83 | 1.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 258.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |