← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 58% | 56% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 4.16 | value: +7% |
| Bournemouth win | 18% | 18% | 5.34 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Lewis Cook · Bournemouth |
| 25' | ⚽ | Dušan Tadić · Southampton |
| 45' | ⚽ | Joshua King · Bournemouth |
| 47' | 🟨 | Jan Bednarek · Southampton |
| 54' | ⚽ | Dušan Tadić · Southampton |
| 89' | 🟨 | Maya Yoshida · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cédric Soares · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alex McCarthy · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 58.00 | 2035.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.54 | 2.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1490.17 | 1530.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.75 | -8.46 |
| eye test v1 | -0.37 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 49.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.56 |
| league points | 29.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.53 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.90 | 25.83 |
| state index | -1.11 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 36.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |