← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Coote, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 50% | 66% | 1.97 | value: +30% ⚠ |
| Draw | 29% | 20% | 3.38 | fair |
| West Brom win | 21% | 14% | 4.61 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Matt Phillips · West Brom |
| 37' | 🟨 | Jake Livermore · West Brom |
| 45' | 🟨 | Allan Nyom · West Brom |
| 68' | 🟨 | Mohamed Diamé · Newcastle |
| 82' | 🟨 | James McClean · West Brom |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | St James' Park |
| coach days | 788.00 | 27.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1540.61 | 1452.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 43.59 | 12.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.70 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.57 |
| league points | 41.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.80 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.70 | -0.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.64 | 29.37 |
| state index | 0.71 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.97 | -0.97 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 275.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |