← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 75% | 76% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 18% | 6.00 | value: +8% |
| Stoke win | 8% | 6% | 11.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Peter Crouch · Stoke |
| 42' | 🟨 | Mame Biram Diouf · Stoke |
| 88' | 🟨 | Virgil van Dijk · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 5 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days | 401.00 | 117.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.52 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1785.80 | 1475.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.96 | -13.18 |
| eye test v1 | 0.77 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | 0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.50 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.79 |
| league points | 71.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 65.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.20 | 37.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.03 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | -8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.51 | -2.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.91 | 28.81 |
| state index | 1.34 | -1.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.14 | -1.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 71.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |