← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Probert, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield win | 35% | 45% | 2.77 | value: +25% |
| Everton win | 33% | 24% | 3.01 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | 3.06 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | ⚽ | Cenk Tosun · Everton |
| 50' | 🟨 | Jonathan Hogg · Huddersfield |
| 77' | ⚽ | Idrissa Gana Gueye · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huddersfield | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | John Smith's Stadium |
| coach days | 909.00 | 178.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.62 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1473.49 | 1589.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.62 | 14.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.96 | -0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.70 |
| league points | 35.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.20 | -0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.58 | 28.74 |
| state index | -0.15 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.51 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 82.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |