← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 47% | 52% | 2.10 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.53 | fair |
| Leicester win | 26% | 22% | 3.83 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
| 38' | ⚽ | James McArthur · Crystal Palace |
| 53' | 🟨 | Yohan Cabaye · Crystal Palace |
| 56' | 🟥 | Marc Albrighton · Leicester |
| 77' | 🟨 | Adrien Silva · Leicester |
| 81' | ⚽ | Ruben Loftus-Cheek · Crystal Palace |
| 84' | ⚽ | Patrick van Aanholt · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Christian Benteke · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days |
| 239.00 |
| 209.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 4.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1527.69 | 1588.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.68 | -0.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | — |
| league points | 35.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.80 | 0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.05 | 25.88 |
| state index | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | 0.93 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| travel km | — | 153.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |