← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Roger East, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 42% | 54% | 2.32 | value: +25% |
| Draw | 31% | 23% | 3.18 | fair |
| Brighton win | 27% | 23% | 3.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Dale Stephens · Brighton |
| 72' | 🟨 | Glenn Murray · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 5 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| coach days | 2035.00 | 1244.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.07 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| -0.60 |
| 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 1.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1784.91 | 1696.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.68 | -32.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.70 | 69.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.67 |
| league points | 53.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 68.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.51 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.07 | -1.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.21 | 28.89 |
| state index | 0.67 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | -1.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 356.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |