← Premier League 2017-18 · Mon, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Madley, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 45% | 46% | 2.18 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 38% | 3.35 | value: +27% |
| Newcastle win | 26% | 16% | 3.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 51' | ⚽ | Theo Walcott · Everton |
| 75' | 🟨 | Michael Keane · Everton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Idrissa Gana Gueye · Everton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kenedy · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 9 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | Goodison Park |
| coach days | 173.00 | 783.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1756.30 | 1760.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.55 | 41.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 65.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| league points | 42.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 66.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 38.40 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.68 | -1.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 29.03 | 26.67 |
| state index | 0.76 | 1.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | -1.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 192.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |