← Premier League 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 44% | 55% | 2.22 | value: +23% |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.46 | fair |
| Burnley win | 28% | 20% | 3.56 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Badou Ndiaye · Stoke |
| 25' | 🟨 | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
| 62' | ⚽ | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
| 85' | 🟨 | Erik Pieters · Stoke |
| 90' | 🟨 | Badou Ndiaye · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 15 | Fouls | 5 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 111.00 | 2029.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.27 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 2.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1473.78 | 1578.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.25 | 38.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.82 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.46 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 65.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| league points | 28.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 33.40 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.00 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.11 | -1.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.36 | 28.28 |
| state index | -1.17 | 0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.34 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| travel km | — | 89.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |