← Premier League 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Mason, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 64% | 33% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 60% | 4.55 | value: +171% ⚠ |
| West Ham win | 14% | 7% | 6.88 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Granit Xhaka · Arsenal |
| 50' | 🟨 | Pablo Zabaleta · West Ham |
| 51' | ⚽ | Nacho Monreal · Arsenal |
| 62' | 🟨 | Ainsley Maitland-Niles · Arsenal |
| 64' | ⚽ | Marko Arnautovic · West Ham |
| 74' | 🟨 | Shkodran Mustafi · Arsenal |
| 82' | ⚽ | Aaron Ramsey · Arsenal |
| 85' | ⚽ | Alexandre Lacazette · Arsenal |
| 87' | 🟨 | Marko Arnautovic · West Ham |
| 89' | ⚽ | Alexandre Lacazette · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days | 7874.00 | 172.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1717.64 | 1515.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.39 | -16.00 |
| eye test v1 | 1.31 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.60 |
| league points | 54.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.95 | 0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.28 | 27.56 |
| state index | 0.84 | -0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.34 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 8.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |