← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Stuart Attwell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 61% | 73% | 1.60 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 24% | 18% | 4.13 | fair |
| West Brom win | 15% | 9% | 6.55 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Danny Ings · Liverpool |
| 69' | 🟨 | Alberto Moreno · Liverpool |
| 72' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 79' | ⚽ | Jake Livermore · West Brom |
| 88' | ⚽ | Salomón Rondón · West Brom |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 5 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| coach days |
| 20.00 |
| 394.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 3.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.72 |
| elo | 1445.42 | 1792.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.96 | 2.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | 0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 66.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.76 |
| league points | 24.00 | 70.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 63.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 2.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.81 | 1.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 29.45 | 25.76 |
| state index | -0.62 | 1.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | 1.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 122.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |