← Premier League 2017-18 · Thu, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Roger East, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 40% | 45% | 2.42 | value: +9% |
| Southampton win | 31% | 40% | 3.15 | value: +25% |
| Draw | 28% | 15% | 3.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| coach days | 200.00 | 49.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.18 | 3.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1593.17 | 1485.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.44 | -41.98 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 61.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.51 |
| league points | 43.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.39 | -0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.28 | 26.62 |
| state index | 0.23 | -1.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.49 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 191.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |