← Premier League 2017-18 · Thu, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Madley, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 51% | 60% | 1.91 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 27% | 20% | 3.59 | fair |
| Burnley win | 21% | 20% | 4.58 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ (og) | Kevin Long · Chelsea |
| 28' | 🟨 | James Tarkowski · Burnley |
| 64' | ⚽ | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
| 69' | ⚽ | Victor Moses · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 2026.00 | 657.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 3.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1585.73 | 1739.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 55.78 | -18.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.50 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.59 |
| league points | 52.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.91 | 0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 28.24 | 27.52 |
| state index | 0.75 | 0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 291.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |