← Premier League 2017-18 · Wed, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Graham Scott, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 54% | 49% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.85 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 21% | 27% | 4.65 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Chris Smalling · Man United |
| 49' | 🟨 | Lewis Cook · Bournemouth |
| 61' | 🟨 | Chris Smalling · Man United |
| 62' | 🟨 | Steve Cook · Bournemouth |
| 68' | 🟨 | Andrew Surman · Bournemouth |
| 70' | ⚽ | Romelu Lukaku · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 2025.00 | 717.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.27 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1537.71 | 1805.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.68 | 11.37 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.40 | 64.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.74 |
| league points | 38.00 | 71.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 2.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.07 | 0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.20 | 28.00 |
| state index | -0.30 | 0.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.50 | 0.97 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| travel km | — | 304.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |