← Premier League 2017-18 · Mon, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham win | 49% | 57% | 2.01 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.51 | fair |
| Stoke win | 23% | 18% | 4.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 79' | 🟨 | Peter Crouch · Stoke |
| 79' | ⚽ | Peter Crouch · Stoke |
| 82' | 🟨 | Bruno Martins Indi · Stoke |
| 85' | 🟨 | Cheikhou Kouyaté · West Ham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aaron Cresswell · West Ham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Badou Ndiaye · Stoke |
| 90' | ⚽ | Andy Carroll · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 21 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days |
| 166.00 |
| 105.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 8.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1518.22 | 1470.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.17 | -18.49 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | -1.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.79 |
| league points | 34.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 66.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 32.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 0.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -9.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.48 | -2.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.77 | 27.68 |
| state index | -0.44 | -1.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | -1.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 220.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |