← Premier League 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paul Tierney, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 81% | 86% | 1.20 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 13% | 7% | 7.40 | fair |
| West Brom win | 5% | 7% | 18.00 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Paul Pogba · Man United |
| 73' | ⚽ | Jay Rodriguez · West Brom |
| 77' | 🟨 | Allan Nyom · West Brom |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.55 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days | 714.00 | 14.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1824.64 | 1426.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.74 | -33.70 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.30 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.59 |
| league points | 71.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 2.22 | 0.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | -0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.91 | 29.41 |
| state index | 1.46 | -1.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.57 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 108.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |