← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 38% | 41% | 2.56 | value: +5% |
| Tottenham win | 35% | 34% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.66 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Gabriel Jesus · Man City |
| 24' | 🟨 | Hugo Lloris · Tottenham |
| 25' | ⚽ (pen) | İlkay Gündoğan · Man City |
| 27' | 🟨 | Ben Davies · Tottenham |
| 41' | 🟨 | Kevin De Bruyne · Man City |
| 42' | ⚽ | Christian Eriksen · Tottenham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Gabriel Jesus · Man City |
| 66' | 🟨 | Vincent Kompany · Man City |
| 70' | 🟨 | Mousa Dembélé · Tottenham |
| 72' | ⚽ | Raheem Sterling · Man City |
| 77' | 🟨 | Fabian Delph · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Wembley Stadium |
| coach days | 1383.00 | 652.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.18 | 4.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.74 |
| elo | 2027.05 | 2071.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.76 | 11.70 |
| eye test v1 | 0.84 | 0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.60 | 67.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.62 |
| league points | 67.00 | 84.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 89.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 70.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.09 | 2.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 10.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.91 | 2.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.65 | 27.50 |
| state index | 2.17 | 2.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.53 | 1.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 253.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |