← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Mason, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 35% | 44% | 2.77 | value: +23% |
| Everton win | 34% | 21% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 35% | 3.17 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | ⚽ (og) | Kyle Naughton · Everton |
| 55' | 🟨 | Jordan Ayew · Swansea |
| 71' | ⚽ | Jordan Ayew · Swansea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Beni Baningime · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.57 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| venue | Liberty Stadium |
| coach days | 134.00 | 164.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1710.40 | 1755.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.37 | 12.84 |
| eye test v1 | -1.18 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.67 |
| league points | 32.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.00 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.80 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.10 | -0.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.61 | 28.11 |
| state index | 0.20 | 0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | -0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.08 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 210.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |