← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 54% | 53% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 15% | 3.85 | fair |
| Southampton win | 20% | 32% | 4.81 | value: +52% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Dušan Tadić · Southampton |
| 42' | 🟨 | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg · Southampton |
| 44' | 🟨 | James Ward-Prowse · Southampton |
| 60' | ⚽ | Jan Bednarek · Southampton |
| 64' | 🟨 | Eden Hazard · Chelsea |
| 65' | 🟨 | Ryan Bertrand · Southampton |
| 70' | ⚽ | Olivier Giroud · Chelsea |
| 75' | ⚽ | Eden Hazard · Chelsea |
| 78' | 🟨 | Oriol Romeu · Southampton |
| 78' | ⚽ | Olivier Giroud · Chelsea |
| 81' | 🟨 | Shane Long · Southampton |
| 82' | 🟨 | Willian · Chelsea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gary Cahill · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 17 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 44.00 | 652.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.66 | 3.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1490.86 | 1734.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.94 | -31.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | 0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.58 |
| league points | 28.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | 0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.68 | 27.89 |
| state index | -0.85 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 105.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |