← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Chris Kavanagh, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 79% | 80% | 1.24 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 16% | 7.30 | value: +16% |
| Bournemouth win | 7% | 4% | 13.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Sadio Mané · Liverpool |
| 15' | 🟨 | Nathan Aké · Bournemouth |
| 54' | 🟨 | Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain · Liverpool |
| 69' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 90' | ⚽ | Roberto Firmino · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days | 387.00 | 2021.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.65 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1787.42 | 1542.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.15 | -1.52 |
| eye test v1 | 0.37 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.30 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.63 |
| league points | 67.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.20 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 2.03 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.80 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.67 | -0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.06 | 27.77 |
| state index | 1.32 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.39 | -0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 309.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |