← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 52% | 54% | 1.89 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.51 | fair |
| Brighton win | 20% | 20% | 4.82 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
| 11' | 🟨 | Dale Stephens · Brighton |
| 14' | ⚽ | James Tomkins · Crystal Palace |
| 16' | 🟨 | Luka Milivojević · Crystal Palace |
| 18' | ⚽ | Glenn Murray · Brighton |
| 24' | ⚽ | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
| 34' | ⚽ | José Izquierdo · Brighton |
| 79' | 🟨 | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
| 89' | 🟨 | Wayne Hennessey · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Beram Kayal · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days |
| 225.00 |
| 1230.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 1.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1519.54 | 1500.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.23 | 1.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 69.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| league points | 31.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.80 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.22 | -1.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.31 | 27.60 |
| state index | -0.19 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.15 | -1.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| travel km | — | 59.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |