← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 37% | 34% | 2.63 | fair |
| Leicester win | 32% | 24% | 3.05 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 42% | 3.20 | value: +36% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Chris Wood · Burnley |
| 9' | ⚽ | Kevin Long · Burnley |
| 65' | 🟨 | Aaron Lennon · Burnley |
| 72' | ⚽ | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
| 81' | 🟨 | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
| 87' | 🟨 | Kelechi Iheanacho · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 2021.00 | 195.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 4.24 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1786.14 | 1793.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.74 | 6.93 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.10 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.66 |
| league points | 49.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 59.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 1.34 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.52 | 0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.89 | 27.89 |
| state index | 1.10 | 0.95 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 148.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |