← Premier League 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Friend, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 75% | 78% | 1.31 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 16% | 5.85 | fair |
| West Ham win | 9% | 5% | 11.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | ⚽ | César Azpilicueta · Chelsea |
| 46' | 🟨 | Mark Noble · West Ham |
| 73' | ⚽ | Javier Hernández · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days | 646.00 | 158.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.22 | 2.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1741.06 | 1511.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.40 | -13.35 |
| eye test v1 | 0.65 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.50 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.57 |
| league points | 56.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.81 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.62 | -0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.90 | 27.40 |
| state index | 0.54 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 15.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |