← Premier League 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 55% | 54% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.82 | value: +7% |
| Southampton win | 20% | 18% | 4.97 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Shane Long · Southampton |
| 28' | ⚽ | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Arsenal |
| 38' | ⚽ | Danny Welbeck · Arsenal |
| 50' | 🟨 | Héctor Bellerín · Arsenal |
| 73' | ⚽ | Charlie Austin · Southampton |
| 81' | ⚽ | Danny Welbeck · Arsenal |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jack Wilshere · Arsenal |
| 90' | 🟥 | Mohamed Elneny · Arsenal |
| 90' | 🟨 | Wesley Hoedt · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟥 | Jack Stephens · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 7 | On target | 8 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days | 7860.00 | 38.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 3.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1732.61 | 1493.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 47.54 | -39.78 |
| eye test v1 | 0.81 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.51 |
| league points | 51.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.20 | 0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.08 | 26.36 |
| state index | 1.44 | -0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.92 | 0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| travel km | — | 114.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |